The full breakdown behind today's tide. Updated every 5 minutes.
📰 Smart headline
auto-generated from historical analogs
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🧪 Macro components
the four readings driving the regime state
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⏱️ Lag tracker
how late Tideline reacts to actual SPY drawdowns
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Each row = one SPY drawdown ≥3% since 1997. Warn-lag = trading days from peak to first ELEVATED/STRESS state. Drawdown caught = how much of the fall happened before the warning.
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🎯 Dip-buy signals
5 candidate bottom-finders — only 1 survived block bootstrap
Each signal pre-declared with a fixed rule. Edge measured vs the conditional baseline (days when SPY was already in ≥3% drawdown). "Survives" = bootstrap CI lower bound exceeds baseline.