Tideline
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Tide Score · 0–100 · higher = calmer
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Trend
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Regime
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This Week's Poll
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House Prior
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FLAT —
DOWN —
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Your call
Voting closes Wed end of day
Crowd so far
0 votes
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Scoreboard
House Prior vs Crowd · Calibration
House posts mechanical odds from history. Crowd posts a vote. Brier scored each Friday — lower is better calibrated.
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House Prior
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Brier: —
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Crowd
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Brier: —
When the crowd disagrees with the house
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disagreed weeks
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house was right
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crowd was right
Disagreement = crowd's modal vote ≠ house prior's modal call. Most weeks they'll agree (both pick UP);
the disagreement bucket is where we learn who actually reads the market better.
Lower Brier = better calibration. 0.0 = perfect, 0.667 = random three-way guess.
Trend Signal · Zone 0
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SPY vs 200/50-day moving averages
SPY—
50DMA—
200DMA—
Historical Claim (1997–2026)
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Regime State · Zone 1
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Descriptive only — no forward-direction claim
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Days in state—
Last transition—
Last trigger—
Macro Components · Zone 2
Describes the environment — does not generate the callRecent Transitions
Last 10 state changes · full log